Numeracy & Decision-Making

• Lessons From The Layup – Corner 3 Spread

• How much to wager when you have edge? (Hint: median not mean outcomes!)

• Percents Are Tricky

• Tails Explained

• Fun Analogy Between Combinations and a Correlation Matrix

• Chart Crimes

• Longitudinal Studies > Snapshot Studies

• Berkson’s Paradox

• Jensen’s Inequality As An Intuition Tool

• The Monty Hall Problem Is More Than A Game

• Innumeracy

• Teach A Math Idea To Internalize It

• Notes on Statistics Done Wrong

• Notes on How Not to Be Wrong: The Power of Mathematical Thinking

• What I learned about earthquakes from Nate Silver’s “Signal and the Noise”

• In power law world”average” doesn’t exist

• Overfitting the Wrong Lesson

• I Felt Bad For Picking My 3rd Grader Off

• There’s Gold In Them Thar Hills Part 1

• There’s Gold In Them Thar Hills Part 2

• The Benefits Of Betting Culture

• Another Kind Of Mean

• Trading Is A Team Sport

• Digital Roots And Wonder

• Repetition Economics

• Calibrated Confidence

• Brain Plug-In

• If You Wait For All The Info You'll Be Too Late

• Sports Analytics Books

• Pitbulls (Formerly StockSlam) Testimonial

• Trade or Tighten’

• Growth rate = 70% * (doublings/years)

• Learn Probability

• one of the strangest phenomena I've ever seen

• Mr. My Way

• a riddle related to American-style options

• “How did you solve that math problem?”

• Dragonfly Eyes

• Snippet on Random Sampling vs. Bias

• Inoculate yourself against “persuasive” charts

• value over replacement

• Eagle-eyed chart reader

• the right bogey: trades that seem compelling but aren’t and vice versa

• kids as market-makers

• poker without the poker

• how I explained vol drag to a 12-year-old