<aside> đź’ˇ Main Themes
The world is complex (a butterfly flaps its wings and small change in initial conditions leads to disproportionate outputs). So our ability to forecast is existentially limited.
But some people are demonstrably better forecasters and it’s not just luck. They are consistent.
Those people are not aliens or geniuses. But they have a mix of qualities and procedures that enable them to forecast at a high level.
The key to getting better, same as in sports, is useful feedback and iteration. It takes hard work, “deliberate practice” and a commitment to get better.
Getting better is necessarily a conscious, painstaking process because our natural biases conspire against our judgement in areas where causality is opaque. Which are most questions of interest.
How groups can hinder or improve forecasting. The role of diversity in group decision making.
In many contexts, making accurate predictions is actually undesirable. Regrettably, I want to shout Moloch everywhere I look. The expression to look for in the notes: "kto, kogo?" Parts of chapter 12 are so disheartening. **
The leader’s dilemma: decisiveness in the face of uncertainty and intellectual humility
Objections, progress, and goals in the endeavor of forecasting </aside>
Chapter 1: Optimistic Skeptic
Chapter 2: Illusions of Knowledge
Chapter 3: Keeping Score